这一轮天然橡胶的下跌,还是蛮痛快的。薛睿品尝了下跌带来的喜悦的同时,反省了自己从前偏爱做多、不喜做空的理由,得出的结论是:早期的中国期货市场,太爱逼空。那时候,空头的悲惨遭遇给老期货们,留下难以忘却的深刻印象。
任何的结果,都是需要经历过程才能抵达的。持有百分之十的橡胶空头头寸,的确够怂,但也使得薛睿盯起盘来尤其轻松。因为这轻松,他可以更好地体会过程,也可以在过程中不断学习。
薛睿想自己从前做交易的时候,总会变得沉默寡言,且常常拿不住单,其中最主要的原因,还是头寸太重。
而每每反思到头寸控制的时候,他又总觉得如唐总、元揆这些创造辉煌交易成就的人,不可能是凭借小头寸,完成使命的。
也因此,薛睿得出的结论是:这个世界上,有些人就是特殊材料制成的。
薛睿自认还是凡胎未脱,即便有“咯噔、咯噔”的加持,也还需要努力修炼。毕竟,过程是必须独自经历的。
上一轮“咯噔、咯噔”的交易。薛睿经历了整个交易过程,虽然收官完美,但消耗了那么长时间的所谓“长线”,反思整个过程,期价从薛睿买入的22000附加震荡上涨至25000之之后,又有一次大幅度的回调,回调的低点甚至击穿薛睿的成本价。如果不是有“咯噔”大法护体,薛睿未必能将交易进行到底。
果真为了一个长线的目标,就必须这般的咬牙硬撑?
目标是目标,过程是过程。目标无需动摇,但不能因为目标,就一味在过程中教条守候。正是这样的认知,让薛睿感觉到即便“咯噔”在手,也需要不断学习,以更好解决过程带来的问题。
趋势,通常只构成分析的困扰,而不容易构成交易的困扰,因为,盘中力量的对比是可视的;而盘局,无论之于分析还是之于交易,都容易构成困扰。
关于遭遇盘局,进退失据是交易挫败的关键。这不单纯是凭借默念“忍耐”和“坚持”就可以解决的。元揆在经历了大量的交易之后得出的结论是“不扛调整”,但薛睿自认为自己没有元揆那种出场之后再度入场的勇气和果断,所以,给自己定制的应对调整的策略为:一旦意识到调整可能开始或走大,选择“平一半”,这样,既可以保住一半的利润,又不至于踏空。
这波橡胶跌得还算直接,百分之十的头寸,就不必玩“平一半”的矫情游戏了。薛睿想的是不是需要等反弹形态走出来,寻找反弹衰老的位置加空一些橡胶。
这个想法当然是有道理的,所谓“顺势逆加码”。但接下来就快要到国庆节了,长假之后的市场当然有不确定性。利弊都有可能。薛睿到底不是狠角色,犹豫不决,最终决定还是消停一些为好。
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